2024 U.S. Open picks to win: Here’s who our staff is betting on at Pinehurst
Scottie Scheffler last week during a practice round at the Memorial.
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Masters winner. Twice. And world No. 1.
Cool between the ears. Hot throughout the bag. Even with the putter.
The whole jail fiasco all but a thing of the past, too.
The Scottie Scheffler positives are seemingly equaled in number only by the dollars in his bank account, and as we head into this week’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, he makes for an attractive selection.
Despite, you know, having never seen the joint.
“I watched a flyover video yesterday,” Scheffler said last week ahead of the Memorial.
Really?
How’d it look?
“It’s beautiful,” he said, laughing.
Should you be alarmed? Maybe. Maybe not. There hasn’t been an Open at Pinehurst for a decade. It’s nothing an internet video or two can’t fix.
Right?
Do what you will with the insight. Below is some more. Members of our staff have each made a to-win selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
On to our analysis.
2024 U.S. Open picks to win
Ryan Barath
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. He’s the best ball-striker and one of the best chippers in the game, and both of those traits are going to be advantageous around Pinehurst No. 2, so for me, it’s a no-brainer.
Alan Bastable
To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +2,000. The big fella’s firing on all cylinders again. Tied for sixth at the Masters. Runner-up at the PGA. Here comes a win at Pinehurst.
Adam Christensen
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. Look, I get it, picking the favorite is no fun. But winning is fun, and nobody in the field is better at winning than Scottie Scheffler. Pinehurst No. 2’s undulating greens require precise shots on approaches and around the greens. Oh look, those happen to be the strongest skills in Scheffler’s well-rounded arsenal. He’s built his game to win anywhere, but this course with a U.S. Open set-up makes it his trophy to lose.
James Colgan
To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,200. With my esteemed colleague Dylan Dethier freed from the shackles of picking Schauffele in every single major for the past five years, I’ll step up to the plate and select the X-Man. Odds of him winning two-straight majors feel low, particularly on a course like Pinehurst No. 2, which is like Valhalla in roughly the same way “Moby Dick” is like Jack Nicklaus’ “Short Cuts to Lower Scores.” BUT there’s also the chance that Xander breaks through a few times now that the major monkey is off his back, and his Tour-leading three-putt avoidance could prove very, very important.
Nick Dimengo
To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +2,000. The guy has brought the fun back to golf and seems like he’s returned to peak Bryson — mixing jovial quips with incredible golf. While it’s good for the game to see DeChambeau back to his quirky self, for the purpose of this exercise, it’s more important to me that he’s had two T6 finishes at the first two majors this year, so now he’s got to put it together and finish the job at Pinehurst No. 2.
Connor Federico
To-win: Max Homa, +2,800. At last year’s U.S. Open, an up-and-coming PGA Tour winner broke through to claim his first major. It will happen again. Like Wyndham Clark did at LACC, Max Homa wins a major championship for the first time. Homa’s decision-making and execution under pressure are only getting better with experience, and his T3 at Augusta and T35 at Valhalla make for his best-ever start to a major championship season. Coming down the stretch on Sunday, I expect the Pinehurst crowd to be vocally behind one of golf’s most likable characters.
How often favorites win tournaments (and when to bet on them)
Jack Hirsh
To win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. YAWNNNNNN. Judging by his play this past week in Columbus, Scheffler has more than recovered from the turmoil of the PGA Championship. Back to business as usual for the World No. 1. I can’t find a reason to pick against him.
Jessica Marksbury
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. The man is a machine. His worst finish of the entire year is T17 (!!). That was at the American Express, where he still posted a score of 21-under par. He was T8 at the PGA Championship after getting arrested. Pinehurst feels like an excellent fit for him, and I simply can’t imagine a reality in which he isn’t in contention next week.
Zephyr Melton
To-win: Collin Morikawa, +2,000. Morikawa already has two top-fives in majors this season, and perhaps no player’s skill set is more suited to Pinehurst than his. Leaning on his strong approach play, Morikawa will once again be a factor.
Nick Piastowski
To-win: Hideki Matsuyama, +1,600. The putter’s been worrisome this year. Everything else has been excellent. I’d also like to use this space to toss out Sahith Theegala, another wonderful ball-striker.
Josh Sens
To-win: Cam Smith, +2,800. Smith isn’t known as the world’s straightest driver, so he’s not an obvious fit for a U.S. Open. But his short game is deadly, he finished fourth last year at LACC, and his showings at Augusta and the Old Course only bolster his resume on humpy, bumpy Golden Age designs. A lot of the week at Pinehurst is going to be figuring out how to grind out a score. Smith does that about as well as anyone.
Sean Zak
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. It feels professionally irresponsible to choose any other golfer to win a tournament these days.
Josh Berhow
To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,200. The monkey is off his back. Plus, his game can win on all types of courses, and I feel like his strengths (6th in Strokes Gained: approach, 1st in scrambling and 2nd in 3-putt avoidance) are crucial for success at Pinehurst No. 2.
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